Categories
- La Jolla
- Health
- Real Estate News
- Newsletter
- Travel
- City Life
- Just for fun
- Things to do in San Diego
- Market Conditions
- Entertainment
- Downtown San Diego Condos
- San Diego History
- Sports
- Foreclosures
- San Diego Lease-Rentals
- Events
- Night Life
- Mortgage & Financing
- Home Maintenance
- Home Buyers
- First Time Home Buyers
- Home Sellers
- Home Decor
- Listing Your Home For Sale
- La Vita
- Little Italy
- Restaurants
- Birdrock
- Downtown San Diego News
Recent Posts
- HAPPY VALENTINES DAY – LOVE YOUR COMMUNITY
- $25 Billion in Landmark Settlement
- SAN DIEGO DEFAULT FILINGS GOING DOWN
- 15 YEAR DREAM COMES TRUE IN DOWNTOWN SAN DIEGO
- Post Thanksgiving….Pre Christmas
Local Resources
Archive for the 'Market Conditions' Category
SAN DIEGO DEFAULT FILINGS GOING DOWN
The number of homeowners receiving NOD’s (Notice of Defaults) declined for the first time since 2008. However, the foreclosures rose slightly from 666 in November to 725 in December. Still….this may be another sign of the housing market making it’s ever-so-slowly turn-around in the real estate market. Now, with interest rates falling into the sub 4% range, the the signs are green for 1) first-time buyers to enter the market, 2) for 2nd home buyers to find their vacation property, and 3) for move-up buyers be excited they will now be able to sell their home to buy “up”. In San Diego County, the inventory is shrinking, making it difficult for buyers to find their dream property. However, with this slightly good news, more sellers may see spring, 2012 as the time to enter the selling market.
In the State of the Union address, President Obama pledged to make the purchase of real estate, or at least getting a loan easier for borrowers, pledging homeowners a $3,000 savings allowing them to refinance without red tape. He promises smart regulations to prevent financial fraud.
If you are interested in purchasing real estate, please click on “Home Search” to the left of this blog. Or call me at 858 395 7727…I am a committed professional and will assist you in purchasing…or selling…your home.
FOR SALE BY OWNER – IS IT A SAVINGS?
It used to be common to see a sign in the front lawn or in the window of a house where the owner was selling his/her own home….FOR SALE BY OWNER. In the real estate industry, they were known as FSBO’s (pronounced FIZBOW’s). An owner thought by selling his own home, without a Realtor, he could save the commission. On a $400,000 home, that could mean about $24,000. A huge savings to an owner. But is it?
FSBO’s may not have all the disclosures a buyer would need to make an informed, and important decision. An owner may discount the home, but no discount will cover the costs associated with hiring an attorney to remedy a dispute that can erupt when buyers and sellers “diy” selling of real property. The California Association of Realtors maintains a Purchase Agreement that is designed to protect buyers (and sellers) when it comes to buying a home.
It is a known fact that over 85% of all FSBO get tired of trying to market their own property, holding their own open houses, answering phone calls and working with buyers who might be look-e-loos, or are not pre-approved and unfamiliar with purchasing a home. FSBO’s don’t use the C.A.R. Purchase Agreement and most don’t have a clear understanding of time frames and “outs” for the buyer to conduct inspections that will give them information to make a decision. I would hope 100% of all buyers will approach a FSBO with caution. On the outside, the FSBO looks like you might be saving money. On the inside, Title Reports are safe guards for the buyer to insure the title is “clear” and can be transferred. Escrow is the 3rd party who handles all the necessary paperwork ti insure it goes smoothly and legally.
Caution: Don’t trade good old-fashioned negotiating with the promise of discount.
Call Jeannie for more detailed information regarding the C.A.R. Purchase Agreement.
SAN DIEGO FORECLOSURES 1974 to Present
San Diego has kept records of the number of foreclosures and Trust Deeds and Trust Sales since 1974. And even though it appears, statistically speaking, the number of Notice of Defaults has been reduced, the next 90 days is critical in that it will reveal whether the pendulum is swinging back to “safety”, or are the banks about to deliver stored up foreclosures into the marketplace.
The number of “All Deeds” indicates our current market, good, bad or unchanged. The number of NOD (Notice of Defaults) indicates the number of homes that are knocking at the lender’s door. Those NOD’s that go to sale are the Trustee Deeds.
In 2009 there were a total of 38,300 approximate NOD’s filed. That is an average of 3192 notices filed each month during 2009. In 2010 there was a total of 24,800 approximate filings. The average is 2070 per month. The result is an average of 1199 fewer filings per month in 2010 than 2009. In January, 2011 there have been 2035 filings of Defaulted Loans.
The attached statistical report gives you a detailed historical look at these numbers since 1974.
WHAT’S THE STORY ON DISTRESSED HOME SALES?
So….what’s the real story? Is the economy beginning to recover? Have we leveled off? Will there be more foreclosures flooding the marketplace? Are short sales selling in the marketplace? What’s a better buy? Short sales or foreclosures? These are all good questions. Let me help you to understand in simple numbers the difference between foreclosures and short sales, and what is the better deal.
The answers differ in each state. In San Diego, a lifestyle that includes urban and rural, and much of it outdoors where the sun is abundant, it differs almost in regions.
What’s a better buy? Short sales? Foreclosures? It depends. Short sale sellers still have title to the property and own it. Hopefully they have been in communication with their lender with regard to a short sale possibility. It also doesn’t mean, just because a seller accepts your offer on his short sale that the lender will go along with it. The seller must be in hardship, must have missed payments and the lender must be willing to look and accept a reasonable offer. Reasonable. That means the lender wants to see comparables in the neighborhood of like properties. So, this could be a good deal.
A foreclosure is where the bank has taken back the property and now they are the owner. Also known as REO (real estate owned). The agent representing the bank on a foreclosure has arrived at the listing price with the help of comparables of like property for the lender. So, this could be a good deal.
What’s the best deal? Some of the better deals are made when a seller has equity in the property and has motivation to sell to a buyer who has been pre-approved. This is where agents can really put on their best negotiating skills to make the best deal for both buyer and seller.
Here is a simple chart showing the number of Notice of Defaults issues as of December, 2010, by value of property. The bulk of the defaulted loans are in the $300k-$400k price point.
No one really knows where it’s going, but if you are considering selling your home, or perhaps buying real estate, call your agent and discuss your needs, your motivation and your opportunities.
WHAT IS “SHADOW INVENTORY”?
I’ve been hearing about this “Shadow Inventory” for over a year and am wondering how it will affect buyers & sellers & home prices, or is the shadow a phantom.
First “Shadow Inventory” is defined by lenders as inventory or homes held back by the lender. They are foreclosures, (or Pre-Foreclosure) bank-owned properties, and properties seriously delinquent at 90+ days. Simply put, the would be considered Pipeline Foreclosures which are not visible.
As I read the recent numbers for foreclosures and pre-foreclosure properties, they appear to be receding when comparing same time last year, but I guess that doesn’t tell the whole story. According to the Atlantic, December 18th issue, who quoted a recent Bloomberg Report, that even though foreclosures nationally were down 3.5% from a year ago, CoreLogic analyzes the increasing inventory due to the length of time it’s taking lenders to process the current inventory attributed to short sales, foreclosures (moratorium) and pre-foreclosures. That’s a mouthful.
Maryland, Illinois and Florida have the highest supply reaching over 20 months. California, overall statewide, has 16 months supply. There are markets in California where we are seeing only a 6-8 months supply.
If we can’t sell the current inventory, (14 month supply in Carlsbad, CA) it’s going to be difficult to sell the supply of inventory coming down in the next few months. And, another question….will the banks trickle the “pipeline” inventory, or flood the market all at once. Flooding the market will certainly have an impact on currently listed pricing.
Here is the current inventory in a few neighborhoods in San Diego.
Downtown San Diego condo market (92101 zip) 422 units for sale, $110k-$4.9k. Mission Hills (92103 zip) 71 homes for sale, $280k-$3.095k. La Jolla (92037 zip), currently 233 homes for sale, $599k-$29,500,000., and 209 condos, $215k-$3.3k. Currently there are 31 Pending homes and 28 condos in La Jolla. In Carlsbad (92010,92011,92008,92009 zip) there are 381 homes for sale, $305k-$1695k. And in Del Mar (92014 zip) there are 143 homes for sale, $599,400-$61 million.
In summation, I have not seen any hard evidence of a large number of properties hitting the market. So far, it’s only hearsay. Let’s hope the bad news that sells papers and stirs up interest, ends up being good news as more jobs are being created, and the slow market is due to the “holiday season”.
Buyers are getting some great deals on foreclosed and distressed property at ridiculously low interest rates. Check out Home Search on my site and review some of the areas I mentioned.
BLACK FRIDAY IN REAL ESTATE
On Black Friday, as millions of “deal seekers” set out in the wee hours of the morning looking for a “steal”, I make it a point to not be one of them. I think of how much money I save by staying home. I love to shop…but not with a crowd.
I think Realtors miss the boat here on Black Friday. We should be holding every house that is available on the market “OPEN”, beginning at 6am. Can you imagine OPEN HOUSES at 6am? We could slash prices for just 1 day…..12 hours. We should have lenders at each house ready to pre-approve the buyers, and with prices SLASHED we may have buyers lined up out the doors….Well…just a thought….Maybe next year.
If you’re shopping for a home, think of this. Prices on most homes have been adjusted, and those homes still on the market are looking for an offer…and will take less than the list price. Interest rates are still very low…So, why wait?
In La Jolla (92037 zip) there are 234 homes on the market, $599,000 - $29,500,000 – and 178 condos for sale, $199,000 – $8,750,000
In Downtown San Diego (92101) there are 444 condo/townhouses for sale, $110,000 – $6,750,000
In Mission Hills (92103 zip), there are 72 homes for sale, $280,000 – $3,095,000
There are many more homes and condos available throughout San Diego County, most (if not all) of them you could buy less than the listed (retail) price.
Like retail sales, home sales will help the economy. So, why wait in line, or get up before dawn…shop for your home online without leaving your house. I’ll help you find the right house, and negotiate that price with the seller….just call me.
BUYING INTO EQUITY
I must either be the luckiest Real Estate Associate, a great negotiator, or maybe this is just a sign of the times, but my last 3 sales have made my buyers very happy. I like happy buyers. Happy buyers make me feel and look good.
First there was a downtown condo sale. At close of escrow this developer sale appraised at $10,000 above sale price. Do you think the buyer was happy to see that? You bet. They got an incredible deal. Free parking for an extra car, and developer incentives of over $15,000. No condo in that building has sold lower since this sale.
Second was a foreclosure in Carlsbad. A four bedroom home on a 1/2 acre with a lap pool. The appraisal came in at over 10% of the sale price. Another happy couple. Foreclosures are very different from short sales and traditional sales in that the seller is the bank. The sale is an “as is” sale, meaning the buyer absorbs all costs, including termite clearance, plumbing problems, electrical problems, damaged cabinets, carpets, paint….everything. If the buyer has to come out of pocket $10k, they are still ahead.
Third was a home in Mission Hills. The appraisal came in at almost 10% of list price. Again, this wasn’t a traditional sale…but a Trust sale. This is also an “as is” sale, again some costs to the buyer. But, still, even if there are costs to bring it to the buyer’s standard, they are in equity.
What does any of this mean for the buyers? It means equity. If they needed to sell these homes right now, they could either break even or profit by a small margin.
In this market…..that’s huge.
In certain markets in San Diego we are seeing buyers buy in to equity more often.
I like to think I’m a great negotiator, (I am) but the truth is….this is the strangest market I’ve ever seen.
My recommendation is this is a great time to buyer real estate. Take advantage of the Monster-low interest rates, the FHA/VA opportunities (3.5% down), the foreclosures, the short sales, and yes…of course…even the equity sales, where there is actually a live, seller who has equity in his/her home and want you to negotiate.
Find homes on my site under Home Search…or call me for assistance in selling your home.
Always get pre-approved first. All these buyers were approved before the offer was made.
Check out “Stay Connected”, on my website. Greg Wickstrand, Home Services Lending, will help you without obligation.
SAN DIEGO RENTAL MARKET-Downtown Zip 92101
The rental market in San Diego, especially the downtown condos, lease quickly….if priced right. Just like the Re-Sale market.
I don’t specialize in the leasing market, however, I will list a property to help out a client, but I don’t actively look for condo listings. Once in a while a potential buyer will decide to rent for a year before they decide where they want to live in San Diego, and I am happy to find a place for them through our MLS.
If you’re planning on coming to San Diego and would prefer to lease for a year until you discover the area of San Diego that fits your lifestyle, this may be the right time for you.
Currently there are 133 condos listed for lease in downtown SD, zip 92101, ranging from $1,400 – $12,000.
During the 1st Quarter of 2009, there were 121 properties leased ranging from $1,50 – $7,200.
During the 2nd Quarter of 2009, there were 114 properties leased ranging from $1150 – $6,000.
During the 3rd Quarter of 2009, there were 112 properties leased ranging from $1100 – $7,200.
During the 4th Quarter of 2009, there were 94 properties leased ranging from $1300 – $6,600.
The first Half of 2010 statistics are…277 properties leased, ranging from $1080 – $5,995.00. There are fewer leased properties in 2010 than in 2009. Also, the rents are lower in 2010. The attractive low interest rates are making the mortgage payments lower than what some monthly rental rates would be taking into consideration the interest rate deduction.
The MLS grants Realtors the opportunity to market leases…. but, like I said, for a fee. Regardless of the fee charged, the MLS is used by Brokers to locate property in all areas of San Diego. It’s worth establishing an Agency and hiring a Broker to lease your property. If you are looking for a lease…there is no cost … except the move-in expenses.
You are able to look for leases on my website using the Search Property button. I will be happy to guide you through it, if you have certain criteria.
FORECLOSURE GLITCH
There is now a bump in the road with all these foreclosures across the country. What’s happening?
Each state has it’s own rules and regulations, laws and timelines. It’s very complicated.
Whether the state is a Judicial or Non-Judiscial state makes a difference in what the courts can do.
Learn the steps to Foreclosure by clicking on HouseLogic the next paragraph.
For this blog, and in the interest of clarity, I have attached the article written by Barbara Bayer, please click on HouseLogic for HouseLogic describing the current situation and the steps to Foreclosure in different states.
I am available to discuss your present situation. Whether it’s a Foreclosure or you are considering selling your property in a short sale, I can help you understand the process and assist in helping you make a decision that can benefit you.
6 SUNNY SIGNS HOUSING MARKET IN SAN DIEGO IS ON THE MEND
There are still men and women out of jobs as unemployment rose to 6.1% , the economy sentiment is still low (even though the recession apparently officially ended in June, 2009) and families are desperately looking for ways to spend less, yet the housing market in San Diego is showing signs of recovery.
1. On low-priced homes, or foreclosed property, and especially with the short sale property we are seeing multiple offers. There are deals out there even with equity sales, or sellers who have owned their property where the value is more than what is owed. I could write a separate story about Equity Sales. I would caption it, Making Deals.
2. For the past eight months there has been a significant increase in sales. Double digit increases for seven of the eight months.
3. Smart investors (pool buyers) have been buying up lower-end properties with the promise of a 10% return.
4. The cancellation rate is down to 24%, where it was at 35% 1 year ago.
5. The County’s Median Price is at $285,000, versus $518,000 in 2002.
6. Foreclosed property represented 52.5% of all re-sale property in February, versus 55% in January.
First-time buyers are a very important part of recovery in San Diego…or in any market, for that matter. First-time buyers who take advantage of this market, low interest rates & low prices, will be the move-up buyers in 7-10 years, selling their home with equity.
Even though the New Home market is still lagging, we are seeing signs of recovery there, as well. ***Shea Homes is seeing a 30% increase in sales, while Davidson is breaking ground on a new-home project in Rancho Penasquitos.
The upper end is still struggling with an abundance of inventory, as “priced-reduced” listings are common. Rancho Santa Fe is off by over 80% from their average, while Scripps Ranch is off by over 40% and Pacific/Mission Beach is off over 38%. Sellers who “must” sell are forced to reduce their prices by as much as 50%, giving the investor/new homeowner a real deal. La Jolla hasn’t escape the lagging statistics, but this high-end beach community is also showing signs of recover. The Average List Price is $2,634,835, off 3.7% or $100,250. The Median Price is $829,500 and increase of 9.7% or $73,500 (year over year). The Average Price Per Sq. Foot is $533, up 4.5%. There have been over 150 sales (year over year) which is down almost 27%. La Jolla is the jewell of San Diego and continues to be a great place to live and go to school.
Even though it may be years before we see total recovery, for many who are getting loans, there is a smile on their face as we begin to see a ray of sunshine in the San Diego housing economy.
For more information on your specific area, please call me.
***CORRECTION MADE on 10/7/10 – Shea homes was not able to confirm a 30% increase in sales. I apologize for the misprint.
